Many people who keep up-to-date on US politics will ask: Will Trump be the same as he was in 2016, or will he emerge as a “better” version? My answer was that he’ll likely be a more refined Trump—but with a caveat. Here’s my reasoning:
When Trump first entered the White House, he was a complete outsider with no prior political experience. Lacking a government background or traditional political resume, he arrived as a novice to the workings of Washington. But now, after years of navigating the political landscape, he’s a seasoned figure who’s learned to maneuver in Washington’s complex environment and has a clearer understanding of the risks and challenges of holding power.
Trump is also well aware that his political survival is closely tied to the Republican Party. The party will protect him and defend his position, as they’re motivated to keep the White House under Republican control. This political dynamic will likely lead Trump to make more calculated decisions, avoiding actions that could provoke party leaders or key supporters.
One key difference now is that Trump has learned the consequences of making empty promises. Back in 2016, many of his bold claims seemed more like campaign slogans. Today, he realizes that to succeed, he must follow through on his promises or at least avoid loudly promoting goals that are unachievable. He’s likely to avoid making unrealistic statements, as he now understands the importance of responding to real-world demands.
Additionally, Trump’s recent appointment of Susie Wiles as his first female chief of staff signals stronger internal support. Known for her strategic insight and political acumen, Wiles will likely ensure that the administration operates more efficiently and effectively. This means the decision-making process within the White House may become more stable, with fewer impulsive choices or personnel changes, as Wiles is expected to bring stability to the management of the executive team.
In sum, I believe Trump will emerge as a more refined and disciplined version of himself, less inclined to make reckless choices and more focused on safeguarding his political legacy. Yet, as always, Trump’s unpredictability remains a core part of his political journey.